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电梯春天来了:今年全国需求量有望达96.2万台!

时间:2019-06-08 17:01来源:新电梯中国 作者:财富动力网
  新电梯中国网讯(微信号:新电梯、新电梯网)

  一、建安投资触底反弹

  2018年下半年以来,房地产新开工和销售面积累计增速、期房和现房销售面积增速出现一定背离,主要原因是房企主动选择加快施工进度、加速拿到预售证、加快回款,同时加大期房的销售比例来增强流动性。

  未来“高周转”模式不可持续,1-4月土地购置面积累计下降33.8%,预计房地产新开工或将于2019年下半年回落。与此同时,2019年以来建安投资恢复正增长,其中4月单月投资金额为6944万亿,同比增速反弹至6.77%。与房地产建安投资好转相互印证,今年1-4月房屋施工面积累计同比增速达到8.8%,较2018全年提升3.6pct。考虑到房地产施工周期通常为2-3年,预计建安投资高增长有望持续至2021年。

  二、电梯行业开启高景气周期

  历史上房地产施工面积累计增速与电梯产量累计增速走势一致性非常高,2019年1-4月规模以上企业电梯、自动扶梯及升降机产量累计达21.5万台,同比增加19.4%,产量与同比增速均达到近5年新高根据我们的测算,2019年国内电梯需求量有望达96.2万台,同比增加21.9%其中更新需求约为11万台,占比为11.4%,对应新增需求为85.2万台,同比增加21.1%,以房地产施工为主的新增需求是今年以来驱动电梯销量高增长的重要力量。

  考虑到2018年5月以来房屋新开工面积累计增速基本维持在10%以上(除1-2月春节效应带来的数据扰动外),截至12月底累计增速已提升至17.2%,这部分新开工房屋将在2019-2021年进入密集施工期,将有效带动未来三年电梯需求量,叠加旧楼加装电梯政策逐步落地,存量电梯逐步进入更新周期,我们看好此轮电梯景气周期有望持续至2021年。

  来源:财富动力网

  Spring comes in elevator industry: national elevator demand expected to reach 962 thousand sets

  With 3.6% higher than the figure of the whole year of 2018, the building area under construction in the first 4 months in 2019 has grown up by 8.8% compared to the same period in last year.

  The production amount of elevator, escalator and hoist from manufacturers has reached 215 thousand sets in January to April, 19.4% higher than last period and reaching new highs in the recent 5 years in production and accelerating speed. As analyzed, the domestic elevator demand is expected to reach 962 thousand sets, 21.9% higher than before. There could be around 110 thousand sets for replacement, taking 11.4% of the total amount, and the rest 852 thousand sets are for new demand, 21.1% higher than before. The demand brought by real estate construction projects is the major drive for elevator sales amount.

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